White paper on Japanese economy  1978

[目次]

• WHITE PAPER ON JAPANESE ECONOMY 1978
• CONTENTS
• CHAPTER 1. THE JAPANESE ECONOMY IN FISCAL 1977 -- Trends and Characteristics -- / 1
• Section 1. One Year of Inventory Adjustment / 1
• 1. Summary of Fiscal 1977 Economy / 1
• 2. Progress of Inventory Adjustment / 2
• 3. Private Demand Dull / 3
• Section 2. Huge Surplus of International Payments and Skyrocketing of the Yen Exchange Rate / 9
• 1. Increasing Surplus and Skyrocketing of the Yen / 9
• 2. Stronger Yen and the Japanese Economy / 10
• Section 3. Present Condition of Prices and Revenue,Profits and Employment of Firms / 20
• 1. Prices More Stable / 20
• 2. Bottoming Out of Business Achievements / 21
• 3. Employment Still Severe / 21
• Section 4. Development of Financial and Monetary Policies / 28
• 1. Development and Effects of Financial Policies / 28
• 2. Development of Monetary Policies and Trends of Monetary Affairs / 28
• Section 5. Current Status of Business / 36
• CHAPTER 2. GROPING FOR NEW RECOVERY PATTERNS / 37
• Section 1. Development of Firms' Efforts to Adapt / 37
• 1. Insufficient Recovery of Earnings and the Background Thereof / 37
• 2. Firms' Adaptation in Progress / 37
• Section 2. Plant Investment Under Inventory Adjustment / 45
• 1. Plant Investment by Manufacturing Industries Finally Bottoming Out / 45
• 2. Firm Tone of Non‐Manufacturing Industry Investment / 46
• 3. Resource/Energy‐Saving Investment and R&D / 47
• Section 3. Household Response / 53
• 1. Background for Maintenance of the High Saving Ratio / 53
• 2. `Return to Goods' and Increase in Demand for Sevices / 53
• 3. Present Condition and Evaluation of Housing Investment / 54
• Section 4. Conditions for Continued Recovery / 65
• 1. Conditions to Smooth Public Investment / 65
• 2. Lull in Monetary Supply and Importance of Monetary Policies / 65
• 3. Changes in Financial Structure and Subsequent Development / 66
• CHAPTER 3. BACKGROUND OF CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS AND ADJUSTMENT EFFECT OF THE HIGHER YEN RATE ON INTERNATIONAL BALANCE OF PAYMENTS / 73
• Section 1. Export Still on Plateau / 73
• 1. Export Promoting Factors from a Macro‐Viewpoint / 73
• 2. Strong Competitiveness in Exports of Japan / 74
• 3. Grounds for the Strong International Competitive Edge / 74
• 4. Increasing Trade Friction and the Background Thereof / 75
• Section 2. Import Growth Stagnant / 86
• 1. Factors that Invited Sparing Increases of Raw Material/Fuel Imports / 86
• 2. Recent Increase of Product Import / 86
• 3. Recent Efforts to Promote Imports / 87
• Section 3. Influence of the Higher Yen Rate on the Balance of Payments -- the J-curve Effect -- / 90
• 1. Influence of the Higher Yen Rate on the Trade Balance / 90
• 2. Trends of Invisible Factors / 91
• Section 4. Surplus Undertone in the Japanese Current Account / 94
• CHAPTER 4. STRUCTURAL CHANGES OF THE JAPANESE ECONOMY / 95
• Section 1. Features of Industrial Structure and Changes After the Oil Crisis / 95
• 1. Inclination to Heavy Chemical Industry and Huge Gaps Between Types of Industry / 95
• 2. Industrial Changes After the Oil Crisis / 96
• 3. Problem s of Structural‐Recession Industries / 97
• 4. Agro‐Fishing Industries Forced to Make New Responses / 97
• Section 2. Response to the Higher Yen Rate and Problems in the Japanese Industrial Structure / 105
• 1. Enterprise Response to the Higher Yen Rate / 105
• 2. Response of Japanese Industry to External Impact and Related Problems / 106
• Section 3. Japanese Industries Adapting to New Situations / 114
• 1. Changes Invited by Stronger Yen and Trade Friction / 114
• 2. Response to New Needs / 114
• Section 4. Changes in the Employment Structure and Relevant Problems / 119
• 1. Ease of Demand‐Supply Relationship in Labor and the Employment Decrease in the Manudfacturing Industry / 119
• 2. Changes in the Employment Structure / 119
• 3. Road to stable Employment Structure / 120
• CONCLUSION / 125

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